62% of U.S. SMBs Say Republicans Controlling Congress Would Benefit Their Businesses The Most

TREND TRACKER | DATA INSIGHTS | MIDTERMS POLL: BOSTON, MA: November 3, 2022 -- The U.S. midterm elections are next week, and Alignable's Small Biz Midterm Election Poll shows that 62% of small business owners believe that Republicans taking control of both the House and Senate would be the best scenario for their business.

Specifically, we asked: "What outcome to the November midterm electi0ns would benefit your business the most?" among 4,805 randomly selected, U.S.-based small business owners from October 1, 2022 to November 2, 2022. 

Here's what they said:

• 62% -- "House and Senate are both controlled by the Republican Party."
  
• 19% -- "House and Senate are both controlled by the Democratic Party."
• 6% -- "House and Senate control remains split between parties."
• 13% -- "None of the above."

Supporting these responses, only 11% said they approve of what the current House is doing for their business. For the Senate, the approval rate was just 10%.  

The primary reasons given for these choices focused on the current state of the economy, ongoing challenges posed by high inflation, escalating interest rates, and fears of a recession. 

Many said they're struggling to stay ahead of inflation, but the higher prices of supplies, gas, labor, rent and more are cutting into their margins. And some consumers can't handle the higher prices small business owners are forced to impose to survive this ongoing inflationary period. 

Stats Show SMB Sentiments Heading Into The Midterms

Several other findings from this election poll and others from the Alignable Research Center illustrate the bind many small businesses face -- and the economic issues framing their choices for the midterms:

• 54% said they're "highly concerned about rising interest rates" and that higher rates have already hurt their businesses. Another 26% say they're "somewhat concerned."
  
• When asked if federal politicians are doing a great job for their businesses, 55% said: "Not at all. They should get the boot."
• As reported in Alignable's October Rent Report, 37% could not afford their rent last month. That delinquency rate was seven percentage points higher than September's 30% figure, marking the most significant month-over-month surge in rent issues seen in 2022.
• In a related survey, 33% of poll-takers said they're in jeopardy of closing before 2023 if Q4 sales don't improve.

Finally, the Alignable Research Center has spent more than a year tracking the percentage of small business owners who have fully recovered, making as much revenue monthly as they did prior to COVID. Unfortunately, that number is just 24%, down five percentage points from 29% in September 2022, and 19 percentage points from 43% in December 2021. 

While small business owners are very resilient and creative and often find a way around economic obstacles, the majority have told us through many surveys that 2022 has been very challenging financially.

So, What Does The Small Business Electorate Look Like?

Certainly, the predominant sentiments of small business owners have regarding the economy promise to play a strong roll during the midterm elections. 

But another factor that must be considered while evaluating or predicting their choices is their current party affiliation. And this has influenced their answers above related to Congressional control and current ratings of the House and Senate.

Based on this poll, here's the breakdown of their current party affiliations.

The largest group that committed to a party were the Republicans at 35%, which is not a surprise, as many small business owners say they are fiscally conservative, and don't like "big government." Instead, they would rather have more control over their financial destiny instead of relying on help from governmental authorities.

Despite A Strong Republican Presence, Swing Voters Rule

Looking at the following list from 30,000 feet up, what's most striking about this breakdown is that the biggest overall group (47%) is comprised of voters who have NOT committed to one of the two major parties -- they're neither Democrat nor Republican. By most political observers, they would be considered swing voters.  

Here are the details: 

• 35% -- Republican
• 16% -- Independent
• 15% -- Democrat
• 15% -- No Party Affiliation
• 14% -- Prefer Not To Identify
• 2% -- Libertarian
• 2% -- "Other"
• 1% -- Green Party
• 0% -- Socialist

While 62% said that a Republican-controlled Congress would be best for their business, as you can see, more than just Republicans or Libertarians made that choice -- a combination of Independents, people with no party affiliation, and those who would not identify their leanings. This is where the power of "swing voters" should not be underestimated -- and it might be very influential in the actual elections next week. 

How Many Have Shifted Party Leanings Since 2020?

Looking at the midterms, we also asked: "Who has changed party status since the 2020 election?" That's because the answer to this question could affect the election results next week, too.

Here's what we learned:

• 82% -- Have NOT Changed Their Party
  
• 9% -- Have Changed Their Political Status
• 6% -- Are Still Figuring That Out
• 3% -- Are In The "Other" Category -- Primarily those who say they don't trust either major party, complaining that both are comprised of "corrupt" and/or "career" politicians. Also, several in this category said they vote by policy, not by person or party.

Here's the spread of small business owners who changed party affiliation since 2020:

• Now Vote Primarily For The Candidate, Not The Party: 26%
  
• Were Democrats, But Now Are Republicans: 12%
• Were Democrats, But Now Are Independents: 7%
• Were Independents, But Now Are Republicans: 11%
• Were Independents, But Now Are Democrats: 2%
• Were Republicans, But Now Are Democrats: 3%
• Were Republicans, But Now Are Independents: 16%
• Prefer Not To Say: 10%
• "Other:" 9%
• Have Given Up Entirely On Politics: 4%

So, while only 9% have changed their political status since November 2020, those who no longer vote for a party, but vote by the person represented the largest percentage of this group: 26%.

They were followed by those who became Republicans (23%) or Independents (also 23%). 

Finally, only 5% of those polled tell us they are new Democrats. 

Looking By Industry, Some Results Are Shocking

Small business owners from nearly all of the leading industries said that a Republican-controlled Congress would be most beneficial for their businesses.

So, before we delve into that list, let's start with industries that have high percentages of SMBs who wanted something drastically different: a Democrat-controlled Congress. 

Here's what we uncovered:

• 54% of photographers
• 50% of non-profits
  
• 39% of architects
• 39% of lawyers
• 31% of musicians
• 31% of travel/lodging pros, and
• 30% of writers. 

Now, here's the line up of other industries and the percentages of SMBs in these sectors who believe a Republican-controlled Congress would be the best outcome from next week's national election. (As you will see, there is some overlap with this list above, as well). 

Manufacturing leads with 86% of the small business owners in that sector favoring Republican control of Congress. Here are the percentages for the remaining categories:

• Agriculture -- 80%
• Transportation -- 78%
• Automotive -- 76%
• Insurance -- 76%
• Construction -- 73%
• Energy -- 73%
• Mortgage Lenders -- 73%
• Finance -- 72%
• Real Estate -- 68%
• Retail -- 68%
• Restaurants -- 63%
• Marketing -- 58%
• Gyms -- 57%
• Beauty Salons/Barber Shops -- 55%
• Health/Wellness -- 54%
• Travel/Lodging -- 53%
• Law Offices -- 52%

Most of these industries have experienced an economic roller coaster ride over at least the past year, with the majority of the SMB owners in these groups wanting a change in leadership at least at the federal level. In their comments, most really want to "turn this ship around" any way possible.  

Another poll-taker described this year as "being stuck on a runaway train, never knowing where or when it's going to stop."

What's Happening Among SMBs At The State Level?

This is where these findings became even more interesting, because whether a state is "red," "blue," or now considered "purple," many of the small business owners in these states are hoping for Republicans to emerge victorious from Congressional elections.

That said, some of the numbers in the "blue states," in particular, are both staggering and surprising. But when it comes right down to it, if small businesses are having trouble paying their rent, or paying for high-priced supplies and/or labor, and their revenues are slow in building, they're going to vote for whoever they think might have the best chance of fixing their finances.

So, here's an abbreviated list of what small business owners in various states would like to see happen on election day next week.

It's not surprising to see these kinds of numbers in states with a strong Republican presence, such as Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Texas or Florida. But it's remarkable to see some of the states where Joe Biden emerged victorious two years ago with such high percentages of SMBs wanting Republicans to regain control of Congress:

• 77% of the SMBs in Pennsylvania
• 71% in New Jersey
• 69% in Washington
• 66% in California
• 66% in Oregon
• 65% in Illinois
• 64% in Georgia
• 63% in Michigan
• 61% in New York
• 60% in Massachusetts, and 
• 59% in Colorado. 

Considering that there are approximately 30 million small business owners in the U.S., which could be a strong voting bloc, it will be interesting to see how the different races turn out. If enough small business owners participate in this election, they might, indeed, be able to exert significant influence.

If you would like to see statistics for your state, or other industries, as well as demographics, please reach out to me at chuck@alignable.com. 

To review past poll results, go to the Alignable Research Center. 

About The Alignable Research Center

Alignable is the largest online referral network for small businesses with 7 million+ members across North America. 

We established our research center in early March 2020, to track and report the impact of the Coronavirus on small businesses, and to monitor recovery efforts, informing the media, policymakers, and our member