Small Business Owners Fear Revenue Hits from U.S. Trade Policy Shifts

New survey from Alignable indicates business revenue losses are at stake

BOSTON, MA, February 7, 2025 – As the new U.S. administration tries to reshape trade policy with proposed tariffs, going back and forth with Canada, Mexico, and China, small business owners across the U.S. are sounding the alarm.

According to a new survey from Alignable, the largest networking platform for small businesses, nearly one in three (30%) anticipate revenue losses, with 15% expecting significant declines due to current or future tariffs. 

In contrast, only 18% foresee a boost in sales, and just half of them (9%) predict substantial gains. Meanwhile, 40% of respondents believe tariffs will have no impact on their businesses, while 12% remain uncertain.

These insights come from a pulse poll conducted by Alignable’s Research Center, gathering 3,718 responses from randomly selected small business owners between January 7 and January 31, 2025.

“Small businesses are already navigating a financial minefield—rising costs, inflation, and economic uncertainty. Now, the threat of new tariffs could be the breaking point for many,” said Eric Groves, Alignable’s CEO and Co-Founder. “Our data reveals a troubling reality: thousands of Main Street businesses are barely staying afloat, and additional financial strain could force them to make impossible choices—hiking prices, cutting staff, or even shutting down altogether. Policymakers must recognize the real-world consequences of these trade policies before they deal a devastating blow to the backbone of our economy.”

State-by-State Breakdown

Considering that small businesses contribute 44% of the U.S. GDP, the ripple effects of any new tariffs could be severe—particularly in states where concerns about lost sales are highest.

According to Alignable’s survey, the states where entrepreneurs are most worried about the negative impact include:

• Minnesota (40%)
• Washington State (39%)
• Illinois (35%)
• California & Ohio (34%)
• North Carolina (33%) and
• Wisconsin (32%).

Massachusetts business owners align with the national average of 30%, while concern levels taper off in other states, including:

• New York (29%)
• Colorado & Florida (28%)
• Texas & Maryland (27%)
• Michigan (26%)
• Missouri (25%) and
• Virginia (19%).

A Boon for Some, a Burden for Many

While some sectors anticipate gains from tariffs, many more expect downturns. Manufacturers and business consultants were the only industries where more small business owners predicted sales increases rather than losses:

• 34% of manufacturers expect a sales boost, with 17% forecasting significant increases.
• 21% of business consultants foresee greater revenue, with 12% anticipating major gains.

However, as the chart above shows, many other industries fear serious losses:

• 48% of architects/interior designers
• 43% of print/copy service owners
• 39% in science/technology
• 38% in health/wellness & art/music services
• 35% in travel/lodging
• 34% in retail
• 33% in marketing/advertising & restaurants and
• 24% in the automotive sector. 

In contrast, industries showing less concern include:

• 20% of landscapers
• 18% of beauty salon owners and
• 14% of plumbers.

Reactions Based On Demographics

Reviewing the data based on different demographic groups reveals that 36% of minorities, and 31% of women polled were worried about losing revenue from tariffs, compared to only 29% of nonminorities and 22% of veterans. 

Real Voices from Small Business Owners

While the statistics reveal the broader potential impact, direct responses from business owners highlight the range of real-world consequences of these proposed tariffs:

• "The cost of materials will increase. None of my clients will be ready for the sticker shock. I'm prepared to have no sales at all."
• "It won't impact my business, but this is still a huge concern because rising costs due to tariffs will still affect me personally. Plus, I have family and community members whose businesses will suffer."
• "If people have to pay more for everything else, they might not have the money for my product."
• "Tariffs will increase my costs overall, so less profit."
• "It depends on if you are selling American-made products or not. Sell American-made, and you will be OK."
• "I have a service business and only use American-made products, so my company, at least, should be insulated from the tariffs."

For additional quotes and more detailed data on other sectors or states, please reach out to chuck@alignable.com.

 To review past poll results, visit the Alignable Research Center, which chronicles past monthly reports that amplify the needs and triumphs of small businesses across North America.

Survey Methodology

Alignable surveys are conducted via email with a randomly selected sample of the network’s vast membership database on a monthly basis. 

Sample sizes range from 100,000 to 1 million small business owners, depending on the poll. Each survey attracts between 2,500 and 9,000 responses.

Alignable’s samples are well matched to the U.S. Census Bureau data of U.S. businesses with 100 employees or less. 

Alignable’s surveys are the most immediate and comprehensive polls available reflecting the sentiments of small business owners in North America.

Beyond our data group at Alignable, we have worked with three researchers from the Harvard Business School, who have consulted with us on the surveys and our methodology.

About Alignable

Alignable is the largest networking platform for small business owners in North America, with over 9.5 million members across 35,000+ communities. Designed to foster meaningful connections, Alignable helps business owners grow through trusted referrals, expert insights, and community-driven support. 

By leveraging network insights and deep member engagement, the platform empowers entrepreneurs to build valuable relationships, gain visibility, and drive real business results. For more information, visit www.alignable.com.